Curious Asymmetries and Myths and Beliefs about Risk

My local Woolworths has four double doors for entry and for various reasons like windy and rainy days some of the doors are locked.  Sometimes a special display is set up inside and doors are locked, on other occasions something has happened inside and a door seems locked for no apparent reason.  Later I find out there has been a spill or breakage and that door is locked.  No matter what the reason, if a door is locked I seem to pick that door first.  We sometimes call this phenomenon Murphy’s Law.  Murphy’s Law is credited to Edward A. Murphy, an American Aerospace engineer who worked on safety-critical systems.  His most famous saying is: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”  For more on Murphy’s Law you can read A History of Murphy’s Law by author Nick T. Spark.

There is in fact no Murphy’s Law but rather in psychology the phenomenon in perception is known as a “hedonic asymmetry”.  In other words, when things are “in sync” and things flow, we don’t notice as much, our observations are more complacent.  When something is odd or asymmetrical, it stands out, we notice it more and tend to exaggerate its occurrence, particularly when it triggers our emotions.

The truth is, in ratio to visits to Woolworths my probability of choosing a locked door is probably quite low.  It just my perception of its regularity seems to be high and is exaggerated because the experience is accompanied by some emotional frustration.  The emotional experience tends to increase the intensity of our perceptions thereby exaggerating the value we attribute to it.  These perceptions then create a range of beliefs and myths which we think are true when in fact they say much more about our distorted perception than reality.  Take for example the following beliefs cause by asymmetry: “it always rains after you wash your car”, “you always need something just after you have thrown it away” or “the phone always rings when I’m in the shower”.  There are many other beliefs such as, when my partner feels like a cuddle, is just when I feel off colour and want some space.  You get the idea.  The same applies in the perception of a lucky streak which was discussed in the previous blog.  So why does this matter?

One of the most powerful tools we have for managing risks is our observations and conversations with others.  One of the primary causes of incidents is the inability to manage the unexpected.  Sometimes our perception is so numbed by the flow of events that we don’t notice things that are “out of sync”.  Other’s might notice these things but we for some reason have not noticed.  We can’t assume others see what we see, particularly if they are complacent or so deeply in the flow that their single-minded focus has the blinded to change.

The psychology of risk is starts with an understanding of human perception and the many ways it is unreliable and biased.  Then with knowledge of the psychology of risk then better manage risk with others in organisations.

Whilst it’s fine to have all these folk laws about the seeming perverse nature of Murphy Laws it’s also important to know that these are more attributed than they are real.   The same applies to a range of other myths about risk in the workplace such as the myths of common sense, engineer out the idiot, the precaution myth, edgework, follow your feelings and the “can do” myth.